Non-Endemic Brands Belong in Retail Media - Here's the Proof

Executive Summary

In this episode of the Mythbusting Series, we challenge a deeply held belief in marketing: that retail media only matters for endemic brands selling products in a retailer's store (e.g., cereal or toothpaste). Historically, non-endemic brands like automotive, banking, insurance, and telecom have dismissed retail media as irrelevant. This episode dismantles that misconception and introduces a more powerful framework: deterministic signals — real behavioral data that reveals true changes in a consumer's life stage.

The Problem with Probabilistic Signals

For decades, marketing has relied on probabilistic signals — broad patterns, demographics, and casual online behavior — hoping that enough exposure will eventually convert into purchases. This wide-net approach can be wasteful and inaccurate. In contrast, deterministic signals are grounded in real purchase behavior, providing a fact-based roadmap of someone's life changes and future needs.

Grocery Data as a Predictive Powerhouse

Grocery purchase data reveals far more predictive insight than typical online behavior:

• Automotive: A first-time diaper purchase isn't a vague indication of parenting interest — it's a clear and actionable indicator of a major life event. That behavioral fact allows brands to show an SUV ad the night a family enters a new life stage rather than waiting for them to search "best family cars."
• Financial services: Consistent premium or home-improvement purchases can infer real-time disposable income, enabling targeted credit card offers before consumers apply for loans.
• Insurance and telecom: Packing supplies and paint purchases signal moving — allowing relevant offers at the right time, long before competitors spot them through traditional triggers like mailers or delayed credit data.

The Three-Step Playbook

A practical playbook for brands to operationalize these insights:

1. Orchestrate data clean rooms: Secure environments where brand and retail data can match insights without exposing raw data.
2. Follow the user off-site: Use retailer insights to power ads on platforms where audiences are receptive, such as connected TV or social destinations.
3. AI Optimization (AIO): The next frontier in personalization — ensure your signals show up strongly when AI shopping assistants make recommendation decisions on behalf of consumers.

By connecting brands to deterministic purchase signals instead of relying on broad tendencies, marketing becomes far more efficient, precise, and impactful. What once appeared irrelevant for non-endemic brands now becomes one of the most powerful strategic tools available.

The Bottom Line

Real purchase signals — rooted in actual behavior — offer predictive power that far surpasses traditional impression-based targeting. Retail media isn't just for endemic brands anymore; non-endemic brands can and should leverage deterministic signals to reach high-value customers earlier and more cost-efficiently.

"Traditional retail media assumptions limit non-endemic brands — that outdated thinking is a blind spot waiting to be exploited."